Primary market trends remain intact on the daily SPX chart. breadth is moving along positively.
Volume is light, but that could be mostly seasonal. Momentum measures are positive, but they
have been deteriorating progressively. The weekly cyclical fundamental indicators have been
flat since early 2017, suggesting the economy will lose positive momentum out ahead. Retail
sales have already been softening and some key monthly sales and earnings measures have been
slowing. However, Ms. Yellen is now spinning the same story in a dovish fashion — moderating
inflation — and the Street likes this as it suggests credit tightening will proceed more slowly. My
e-mail continues to gradually accumulate caution signals from seasoned and successful strategy
people. Pressure from centers of prominence outside the Beltway are telling the Trump team
and the GOP to get moving on stimulus programs, but Senate leader McConnell, a naysaying
‘Miss Grundy’ type, is trundling along slowly as he follows his own muse. SPX Daily
The chart shows the market has been bending but not breaking for months now and has been
playing hob with the 25day m/a, sending out mechanical sell signals on breaks that have whip-
sawed bearish traders.
I am basically done with the SPX and macro-style trades above 2450 and would have to see
the MACD (bottom channel of the chart) skitter down to -40 or so before I would consider a
long side trade. Even then, I would only use a small amount of capital. The market owes none
of us a blessed thing, and, for my part I am just thankful the world did not head into full fledged
economic depression in 2008.