There’s Lots of Precedent for the Trump Rally
Market gains since Election Day have been nothing out of the ordinary.
Bloomberg, October 13, 2017
It would be really nice if the Fake News Media would report the virtually unprecedented Stock Market growth since the election.Need tax cuts
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 11, 2017
Like so many of the president’s statements, this one is objectively false. Our charge today is to set aside the political debate, and instead use his statement as an opportunity to explore ways to compare markets and rallies. Cognitive issues and innumeracy affect all investors, including presidents; this isn’t our first discussion of issues like denominator blindness, nor will it be our last.
Instead, we can use data to see how the so-called Trump rally compares to others.
No. 1. U.S. Presidential Rallies: As Bloomberg News reported the other day, “the ‘unprecedented’ stock market rally since his election right now isn’t big enough to crack the top five in presidential history.” As the accompanying chart shows, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 19 percent 2016 election. That rates better than three other post presidential elections: George W. Bush in 2004 (7 percent), Bill Clinton in 1992 (10 percent), and Barack Obama in 2012 (16 percent).
Continues at There’s Lots of Precedent for the Trump Rally